5
Merrijig
8yo Gelding · 9-5 · OR 62
Pontefract · Donate To New Beginnings Horses At nbhorses.org.uk Handicap · 2m 1f 27y
#4
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#4
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength26%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 4.3)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C5.7
Today: 5
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-27 | Ffos Las | 6 | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-07-17 | Nottingham | 5 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-30 | Ffos Las | 6 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-06-08 | Pontefract | 6 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-04-06 | Kempton | 5 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-11-18 | Newcastle | 6 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 60% of fieldRange 4-6 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength9%
Delivery trend -5.7% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/09/2025 | 4th | 8/1 | 58% | 73% | +0.15 |
| 27/09/2025 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 67% | -0.04 |
| 12/10/2025 | 7th | 8/1 | 58% | 40% | -0.18 |
| 18/11/2025 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 06/04/2026 | 6th | 10/3 | 82% | 38% | -0.45 |
| 08/06/2026 | 3rd | 11/1 | 42% | 82% | +0.40 |
| 30/06/2026 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 83% | +0.02 |
| 17/07/2026 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 50% | -0.34 |
| 27/08/2026 | 6th | 4/1 | 79% | 17% | -0.62 |