Punxsutawney Phil
9yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 54
Pontefract · Donate To New Beginnings Horses At nbhorses.org.uk Handicap · 2m 1f 27y
#5
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 5 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.2 /10 (raw 4.5)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-30 | Beverley | 5 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-03-21 | Musselburgh | 2 | 2nd | -2th | +3 |
| 2025-02-20 | Huntingdon | 4 | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2025-02-13 | Newcastle | 4 | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2025-01-24 | Doncaster | 4 | 10th | 9th | +1 |
| 2024-12-26 | Sedgefield | 4 | 6th | 5th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -2.8% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/11/2024 | 4th | 28/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |
| 26/11/2024 | 2nd | 18/1 | 5% | 88% | +0.82 |
| 09/12/2024 | 1st | 16/1 | 16% | 100% | +0.84 |
| 26/12/2024 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 24/01/2025 | 10th | 25/1 | 0% | 44% | +0.44 |
| 13/02/2025 | 1st | 10/1 | 47% | 100% | +0.53 |
| 20/02/2025 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 40% | -0.39 |
| 21/03/2025 | 2nd | 22/1 | 0% | 93% | +0.93 |
| 30/08/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 67% | +0.30 |