IvyArcIvyArc
6

Dubai Venture

5yo Gelding · 9-9 · OR 57

Pontefract · Pontefract Racecourse Racing Together Combatting Loneliness Handicap · 1m 2f 5y

#3

Rank

Odds

7/2

Win Prob

17%

Place Prob

22%

Rank

#3

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Enhanced a fine Pontefract record when readily landing 1½m handicap in July. Has remained in good form since, again finding only one too good at Redcar (1¾m, good to firm) last month. In the picture once more back down in trip.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength61%

What the class read says

Favourable class profile — form adjusted for the quality of opposition looks competitive here. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.3 /10 (raw 4.6)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.8
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack6 @ Beverley 05/05/2025 · Pos 2nd of 12 · OR 47 · 1m4f23y Goo 122 · beat its mark05/05/2025 · OR 47 par5/056OR 476 @ Pontefract 23/05/2025 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 47 · 1m4f5y Goo 124 · beat its mark23/05/2025 · OR 47 par6 @ Beverley 04/07/2025 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 49 · 1m4f23y Goo 119 · beat its mark04/07/2025 · OR 49 par4/076OR 496 @ Hamilton 17/07/2025 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 53 · 1m5f16y Goo 128 · beat its mark17/07/2025 · OR 53 par6 @ Pontefract 22/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 53 · 1m4f5y Goo 130 · beat its mark22/05/2026 · OR 53 par22/056OR 535 @ Carlisle 09/06/2026 · Pos 6th of 10 · OR 54 · 1m3f39y Goo 119 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark09/06/2026 · OR 54 par6 @ Pontefract 07/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR 53 · 1m4f5y Goo 135 · beat its mark07/07/2026 · OR 53 par7/076OR 536 @ Thirsk 24/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 5 · OR 57 · 1m4f8y Goo 128 · beat its mark24/07/2026 · OR 57 par6 @ Redcar 08/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 57 · 1m5f218y Goo 134 · beat its mark08/08/2026 · OR 57 par8/086OR 57projClass-projected finish: 1st of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-08Redcar62nd2nd0
2026-07-24Thirsk62nd2nd0
2026-07-07Pontefract61st1st0
2026-06-09Carlisle56th5th+1
2026-05-22Pontefract62nd2nd0
2025-07-17Hamilton62nd2nd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today5/0517/077/078/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1291% of fieldRange 4-11 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength40%

Delivery trend -12.4% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 12. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
05/05/20252nd33/10%91%+0.91
23/05/20251st16/116%100%+0.84
04/07/20251st8/158%100%+0.42
17/07/20252nd9/488%89%+0.01
22/05/20262nd3/184%83%-0.01
09/06/20266th9/276%44%-0.32
07/07/20261st9/488%100%+0.12
24/07/20262nd10/382%75%-0.07
08/08/20262nd7/491%88%-0.03