12
Grindleton
3yo Gelding · 9-4 · OR 57
Pontefract · Pontefract Racecourse Racing Together Combatting Loneliness Handicap · 1m 2f 5y
#6
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#6
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength33%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.6 /10 (raw 4.1)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.8
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-28 | Ffos Las | 6 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-04 | Ffos Las | 6 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-02 | Wolverhampton | 6 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-05-19 | Nottingham | 6 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-30 | Yarmouth | 6 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-10-09 | Bath | 5 | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1264% of fieldRange 2-12 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength37%
Delivery trend -5.0% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 12. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/09/2025 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 58% | +0.32 |
| 25/09/2025 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 63% | -0.16 |
| 09/10/2025 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 78% | +0.09 |
| 30/04/2026 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 50% | -0.24 |
| 19/05/2026 | 2nd | 13/2 | 66% | 90% | +0.24 |
| 02/06/2026 | 8th | 11/8 | 93% | 0% | -0.93 |
| 04/08/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 89% | +0.15 |
| 28/08/2026 | 4th | 3/1 | 84% | 70% | -0.14 |