Hill O Rue
4yo Gelding · 9-10 · OR 58
Pontefract · Pontefract Racecourse Racing Together Combatting Loneliness Handicap · 1m 2f 5y
#7
Rank
Odds
14/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.5 /10 (raw 5.7)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-27 | Carlisle | 6 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-06 | Ayr | 6 | 12th | 12th | 0 |
| 2026-05-22 | Haydock | 5 | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2026-04-20 | Redcar | 5 | 9th | 8th | +1 |
| 2025-09-23 | Beverley | 6 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-07-29 | Ripon | 4 | 4th | 2nd | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -0.8% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 9th of 12.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/05/2025 | 3rd | 10/3 | 82% | 75% | -0.07 |
| 29/05/2025 | 1st | 7/4 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 07/07/2025 | 5th | 7/1 | 63% | 67% | +0.04 |
| 29/07/2025 | 4th | 7/1 | 63% | 0% | -0.63 |
| 23/09/2025 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 20/04/2026 | 9th | 14/1 | 26% | 0% | -0.26 |
| 22/05/2026 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 25% | -0.12 |
| 06/07/2026 | 12th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 27/08/2026 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 33% | -0.14 |