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11

Regulus Black

3yo Gelding · 9-4 · OR 57

Pontefract · Pontefract Racecourse Racing Together Combatting Loneliness Handicap · 1m 2f 5y

#4

Rank

Odds

7/1

Win Prob

1%

Place Prob

5%

Rank

#4

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Scored at Chepstow (1¼m) in May and proved a reliable sort for Hugo Palmer. Gelded before making an encouraging start for new yard when fifth of 13 in handicap at Windsor 19 days ago. Not out of things back down in trip.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength47%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.8 /10 (raw 3.5)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.7
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Wolverhampton 17/03/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR - · 1m142y Std 126 · HIGHER CLASS17/0344 @ Southwell 26/03/2026 · Pos 5th of 11 · OR - · 1m13y Std 125 · HIGHER CLASS4 @ Pontefract 07/04/2026 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR - · 1m6y GS 127 · HIGHER CLASS7/0446 @ Beverley 12/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 51 · 1m1f207y Goo 126 · beat its mark12/05/2026 · OR 51 par6 @ Chepstow 29/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 51 · 1m2f Goo 126 · beat its mark29/05/2026 · OR 51 par29/056OR 516 @ Hamilton 17/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 56 · 1m3f15y Goo 123 · beat its mark17/06/2026 · OR 56 par6 @ Nottingham 04/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 56 · 1m2f50y Goo 132 · beat its mark04/07/2026 · OR 56 par4/076OR 566 @ Windsor 29/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 13 · OR 57 · 1m3f99y Sft 132 · beat its mark29/08/2026 · OR 57 par29/086OR 57projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-29Windsor65th5th0
2026-07-04Nottingham62nd2nd0
2026-06-17Hamilton63rd3rd0
2026-05-29Chepstow61st1st0
2026-05-12Beverley63rd3rd0
2026-04-07Pontefract45th3rd+2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today17/0312/054/0729/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1255% of fieldRange 7-12 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength20%

Delivery trend -12.1% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 12. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
17/03/20264th25/10%50%+0.50
26/03/20265th22/10%60%+0.60
07/04/20265th22/10%43%+0.43
12/05/20263rd11/893%75%-0.18
29/05/20261st15/890%100%+0.10
17/06/20263rd5/493%67%-0.27
04/07/20262nd8/1196%80%-0.16
29/08/20265th7/282%67%-0.15