Test Run
3yo Gelding · 9-7 · OR 60
Pontefract · Pontefract Racecourse Racing Together Combatting Loneliness Handicap · 1m 2f 5y
#11
Rank
Odds
33/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#11
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.6 /10 (raw 5.8)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-31 | Southwell | 5 | 10th | 9th | +1 |
| 2026-08-01 | Thirsk | 4 | 4th | 2nd | +2 |
| 2026-07-16 | Hamilton | 5 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2025-09-13 | Doncaster | 2 | 4th | -1th | +4 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -11.9% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 11th of 12. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/09/2025 | 4th | 80/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 16/07/2026 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 20% | -0.56 |
| 01/08/2026 | 4th | 33/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 31/08/2026 | 10th | 28/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |