5
Kid Commish
5yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 31
Remington Park · Race 1 - Maiden Claiming · 7f
#4
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▼1
Strength46%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 7.0 /10 (raw 8.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.7
Today:
Class gap: +0.8
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 | Remington Park | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-11-23 | Remington Park | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2025-11-09 | Remington Park | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2025-10-31 | Remington Park | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2025-08-22 | Remington Park | ? | 8th | 5th | +3 |
| 2024-12-05 | Remington Park | ? | 7th | 4th | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 871% of fieldRange 2-5 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength67%
Delivery trend +1.7% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/12/2024 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 22/08/2025 | 8th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 31/10/2025 | 9th | 66/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |
| 09/11/2025 | 9th | 40/1 | 0% | 27% | +0.27 |
| 23/11/2025 | 8th | 40/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 05/09/2026 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |