3
Red Hot Shot
3yo Gelding · 8-6 · OR 56
Remington Park · Race 1 - Maiden Claiming · 7f
#2
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
70%
Place Prob
46%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▼1
Strength66%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.0 /10 (raw 4.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.7
Today:
Class gap: +0.8
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 | Remington Park | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-08-22 | Remington Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-03-03 | Will Rogers Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-02-10 | Will Rogers Downs | ? | 3rd | 0th | +3 |
| 2025-12-20 | Remington Park | ? | 6th | 3rd | +3 |
| 2025-11-22 | Remington Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 857% of fieldRange 4-8 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength23%
Delivery trend -10.4% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/09/2025 | 8th | 20/1 | 0% | 30% | +0.30 |
| 09/10/2025 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 57% | +0.41 |
| 22/11/2025 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 80% | +0.06 |
| 20/12/2025 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 17% | -0.10 |
| 10/02/2026 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 60% | -0.14 |
| 03/03/2026 | 4th | 10/3 | 82% | 25% | -0.57 |
| 22/08/2026 | 3rd | 7/1 | 63% | 82% | +0.19 |
| 05/09/2026 | 6th | 4/1 | 79% | 29% | -0.50 |