Crowned

2yo Colt · 9-9 · OR 65

Southwell · Sky Sports Racing Virgin 512 Nursery · 6f 16y

#4

Rank

Odds

9/2

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

2%

Rank

#4

★★★ Timeform

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark

Move▬

Strength44%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.7 /10 (raw 3.2)

Highest class: 5

Recent avg: C5.6

Today: 6

Class gap: +0.4

Higher-class runs: 2

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-08-29	Windsor	6	2nd	2nd	0	8.0
2026-08-23	Brighton	6	2nd	2nd	0	8.0
2026-08-05	Kempton	6	5th	5th	0	5.0
2026-06-25	Nottingham	5	4th	3rd	+1	7.2
2026-06-15	Windsor	5	3rd	2nd	+1	8.2

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish5th of 1264% of fieldRange 1-12 · 68%

▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price

Trend▼

Strength29%

Delivery trend -16.0% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 12. Recent form is easing off.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
15/06/2026	3rd	80/1	0%	83%	+0.83
25/06/2026	4th	11/4	86%	57%	-0.28
05/08/2026	5th	2/1	89%	56%	-0.34
23/08/2026	2nd	15/8	90%	80%	-0.10
29/08/2026	2nd	5/6	96%	90%	-0.06