Defiant Dream

2yo Filly · 9-0 · OR 56

Southwell · Sky Sports Racing Virgin 512 Nursery · 6f 16y

#11

Rank

Odds

33/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#11

★★ Timeform

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark

Move▼1

Strength68%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 5.5)

Highest class: 4

Recent avg: C5.0

Today: 6

Class gap: +1.0

Higher-class runs: 3

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-08-09	Chepstow	6	5th	5th	0	5.0
2026-07-24	Chepstow	5	6th	5th	+1	5.2
2026-06-17	Ffos Las	5	2nd	1st	+1	9.2
2026-06-04	Lingfield	4	9th	7th	+2	3.4

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish8th of 1236% of fieldRange 1-11 · 68%

▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price

Trend▲

Strength57%

Delivery trend +5.9% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 8th of 12. Recent form is on the up.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
04/06/2026	9th	80/1	0%	11%	+0.11
17/06/2026	2nd	50/1	0%	75%	+0.75
24/07/2026	6th	18/1	5%	44%	+0.39
09/08/2026	5th	20/1	0%	43%	+0.43