8

Harry Who

2yo Colt · 9-3 · OR 59

Southwell · Sky Sports Racing Virgin 512 Nursery · 6f 16y

#5

Rank

Odds

10/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

2%

Rank

#5

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Green when fourth both starts to date and now makes nursery/all-weather debut on just third outing. Progress likely at some stage but it's still early days with him.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move2
Strength75%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.2 /10 (raw 4.0)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.5
Today: 6
Class gap: +1.5
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Thirsk 01/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR - · 6f Goo 130 · HIGHER CLASS1/0754 @ Ripon 31/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR - · 6f GS 133 · HIGHER CLASS31/084projClass-projected finish: 1st of 12
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-31Ripon44th2nd+2
2026-07-01Thirsk54th3rd+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today1/0731/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1245% of fieldRange 10-10 · 68%
OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend
Strength16%

Delivery trend -28.0% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 7th of 12. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
01/07/20264th11/142%67%+0.25
31/08/20264th15/261%57%-0.03