Pageant Girl
2yo Filly · 9-1 · OR 57
Southwell · Sky Sports Racing Virgin 512 Nursery · 6f 16y
#2
Rank
Odds
25/1
Win Prob
5%
Place Prob
15%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.6 /10 (raw 6.1)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-23 | Brighton | 6 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-05 | Kempton | 6 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-07-15 | Lingfield | 5 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-06-27 | Chepstow | 5 | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2026-05-03 | Newmarket | 2 | 8th | 3rd | +4 |
| 2026-04-25 | Ripon | 4 | 1st | -1th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -0.8% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 6th of 12.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/04/2026 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 40% | +0.03 |
| 25/04/2026 | 1st | 7/1 | 63% | 100% | +0.37 |
| 03/05/2026 | 8th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 27/06/2026 | 7th | 17/2 | 55% | 14% | -0.41 |
| 15/07/2026 | 5th | 22/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 05/08/2026 | 10th | 150/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 23/08/2026 | 5th | 28/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |