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4

Polly The Sniper

2yo Filly · 9-7 · OR 63

Southwell · Sky Sports Racing Virgin 512 Nursery · 6f 16y

#7

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

2%

Rank

#7

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Best effort (modest form) when second of 6 in a maiden at Bath 15 days ago. Now makes nursery debut back on all-weather and still only lightly raced.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▼1
Strength62%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.7 /10 (raw 4.3)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.7
Today: 6
Class gap: +1.3
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Windsor 03/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR - · 6f12y GF 122 · HIGHER CLASS3/0854 @ Lingfield 18/08/2026 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR - · 6f1y Std 128 · HIGHER CLASS18/0845 @ Bath 02/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR - · 5f160y Goo 128 · HIGHER CLASS2/095projClass-projected finish: 5th of 12
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-02Bath52nd1st+1
2026-08-18Lingfield46th4th+2
2026-08-03Windsor55th4th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today3/0818/082/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1273% of fieldRange 1-1 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +30.0% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 12. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
03/08/20265th66/10%20%+0.20
18/08/20266th28/10%38%+0.38
02/09/20262nd33/10%80%+0.80