Sovereign Beach
2yo Filly · 9-2 · OR 58
Southwell · Sky Sports Racing Virgin 512 Nursery · 6f 16y
#8
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 6.0)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-29 | Chepstow | 6 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-08-13 | Beverley | 6 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-24 | Chepstow | 6 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-23 | Newbury | 4 | 10th | 8th | +2 |
| 2026-06-12 | Goodwood | 4 | 6th | 4th | +2 |
| 2026-05-28 | Ripon | 4 | 5th | 3rd | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -2.2% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 11th of 12. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/05/2026 | 5th | 11/2 | 71% | 33% | -0.38 |
| 12/06/2026 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 29% | -0.08 |
| 23/06/2026 | 10th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 24/07/2026 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 60% | +0.07 |
| 13/08/2026 | 4th | 11/1 | 42% | 67% | +0.25 |
| 29/08/2026 | 8th | 15/8 | 90% | 13% | -0.78 |