Bill Plumb
7yo Gelding · 9-12 · OR 65
Southwell · Follow AtTheRaces On X Handicap · 6f 16y
#10
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#10
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 6 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 4.3)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-17 | Wolverhampton | 5 | 10th | 9th | +1 |
| 2026-04-21 | Yarmouth | 5 | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-02-20 | Southwell | 5 | 8th | 7th | +1 |
| 2026-01-11 | Chelmsford City | 5 | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2025-11-07 | Newcastle | 5 | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2025-10-13 | Yarmouth | 5 | 1st | 0th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +0.5% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 12th of 13.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/08/2025 | 6th | 11/2 | 71% | 50% | -0.21 |
| 24/08/2025 | 1st | 9/1 | 53% | 100% | +0.47 |
| 18/09/2025 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 17% | -0.10 |
| 13/10/2025 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 07/11/2025 | 3rd | 15/2 | 61% | 82% | +0.21 |
| 11/01/2026 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 44% | +0.29 |
| 20/02/2026 | 8th | 22/1 | 0% | 36% | +0.36 |
| 21/04/2026 | 6th | 18/1 | 5% | 0% | -0.05 |
| 17/08/2026 | 10th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |