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13

Blackjack

9yo Gelding · 9-4 · OR 57

Southwell · Follow AtTheRaces On X Handicap · 6f 16y

#3

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

5%

Place Prob

13%

Rank

#3

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

3-time C&D winner who ran creditably when third in 11-runner handicap at Wolverhampton (6f) 16 days ago. Consistency not his strong suit, though, so just as likely to run poorly here.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength26%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 6.3 /10 (raw 5.0)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C6.0
Today: 6
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Southwell 06/01/2026 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 68 · 6f16y Std 133 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark06/01/2026 · OR 68 par6/015OR 685 @ Newcastle 10/02/2026 · Pos 9th of 9 · OR 67 · 6f Std 133 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark10/02/2026 · OR 67 par5 @ Southwell 20/02/2026 · Pos 11th of 12 · OR 67 · 6f16y Std 130 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark20/02/2026 · OR 67 par20/025OR 676 @ Southwell 26/03/2026 · Pos 7th of 9 · OR 64 · 6f16y Std 134 · below its mark26/03/2026 · OR 64 par6 @ Southwell 23/04/2026 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR 62 · 6f16y Std 132 · below its mark23/04/2026 · OR 62 par23/046OR 626 @ Wetherby 15/06/2026 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR 54 · 5f110y Goo 134 · beat its mark15/06/2026 · OR 54 par6 @ Wolverhampton 14/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 59 · 7f36y Std 135 · beat its mark14/07/2026 · OR 59 par14/076OR 596 @ Southwell 16/08/2026 · Pos 14th of 14 · OR 58 · 6f16y Std 133 · below its mark16/08/2026 · OR 58 par6 @ Wolverhampton 01/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR 57 · 6f21y Std 132 · beat its mark01/09/2026 · OR 57 par1/096OR 57projClass-projected finish: 9th of 13
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-01Wolverhampton63rd3rd0
2026-08-16Southwell614th14th0
2026-07-14Wolverhampton63rd3rd0
2026-06-15Wetherby66th6th0
2026-04-23Southwell65th5th0
2026-03-26Southwell67th7th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today6/0126/0314/071/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1383% of fieldRange 1-11 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength60%

Delivery trend +3.6% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 13. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
06/01/20264th11/142%63%+0.20
10/02/20269th14/126%0%-0.26
20/02/202611th25/10%9%+0.09
26/03/20267th10/147%25%-0.22
23/04/20265th11/142%20%-0.22
15/06/20266th12/137%38%+0.01
14/07/20263rd33/10%78%+0.78
16/08/202614th22/10%0%0.00
01/09/20263rd13/266%80%+0.14