Insuspense
4yo Filly · 9-8 · OR 61
Southwell · Follow AtTheRaces On X Handicap · 6f 16y
#7
Rank
Odds
11/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.1 /10 (raw 4.1)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-30 | Yarmouth | 6 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-05 | Goodwood | 5 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-05-23 | Windsor | 6 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-03-26 | Southwell | 6 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-03-13 | Wolverhampton | 6 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-03-02 | Wolverhampton | 5 | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -2.6% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 13. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/01/2026 | 8th | 11/1 | 42% | 22% | -0.20 |
| 23/01/2026 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 83% | +0.31 |
| 21/02/2026 | 2nd | 17/2 | 55% | 88% | +0.32 |
| 02/03/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 88% | +0.03 |
| 13/03/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 89% | +0.10 |
| 26/03/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 88% | +0.02 |
| 23/05/2026 | 7th | 5/1 | 74% | 54% | -0.20 |
| 05/06/2026 | 5th | 5/1 | 74% | 56% | -0.18 |
| 30/08/2026 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 75% | +0.04 |