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7

Jesse Luc

6yo Gelding · 9-9 · OR 62

Southwell · Follow AtTheRaces On X Handicap · 6f 16y

#1

Rank

Odds

14/1

Win Prob

83%

Place Prob

52%

Rank

#1

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

3-time C&D winner who is falling in the weights without showing much sign of taking advantage at present. Needs to raise his game.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼1
Strength62%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 6 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 4.4)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.0
Today: 6
Class gap: +1.0
Higher-class runs: 6
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Southwell 27/09/2025 · Pos 6th of 10 · OR 74 · 6f16y Std 137 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark27/09/2025 · OR 74 par27/095OR 744 @ Chelmsford City 29/01/2026 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 72 · 6f Std 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark29/01/2026 · OR 72 par5 @ Southwell 11/02/2026 · Pos 5th of 11 · OR 71 · 6f16y Std 131 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark11/02/2026 · OR 71 par11/025OR 715 @ Kempton 25/02/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 70 · 6f Sta 130 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark25/02/2026 · OR 70 par5 @ Southwell 10/03/2026 · Pos 5th of 11 · OR 70 · 6f16y Std 135 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark10/03/2026 · OR 70 par10/035OR 705 @ Southwell 11/04/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 69 · 6f16y Std 134 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark11/04/2026 · OR 69 par5 @ Wolverhampton 06/07/2026 · Pos 6th of 11 · OR 68 · 6f20y Std 133 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark06/07/2026 · OR 68 par6/075OR 685 @ Southwell 06/08/2026 · Pos 7th of 9 · OR 66 · 6f17y Std 131 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark06/08/2026 · OR 66 par5 @ Southwell 31/08/2026 · Pos 6th of 12 · OR 64 · 6f16y Std 129 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark31/08/2026 · OR 64 par31/085OR 64projClass-projected finish: 6th of 13
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-31Southwell56th5th+1
2026-08-06Southwell57th6th+1
2026-07-06Wolverhampton56th5th+1
2026-04-11Southwell53rd2nd+1
2026-03-10Southwell55th4th+1
2026-02-25Kempton53rd2nd+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today27/0925/026/0731/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1375% of fieldRange 5-13 · 68%
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▬
Strength22%

Delivery trend -0.2% per run

What the projection says

Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 4th of 13.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
27/09/20256th4/179%44%-0.35
29/01/20264th12/137%63%+0.26
11/02/20265th16/116%60%+0.44
25/02/20263rd11/486%67%-0.19
10/03/20265th5/287%60%-0.27
11/04/20263rd7/282%71%-0.10
06/07/20266th17/255%50%-0.05
06/08/20267th11/271%25%-0.46
31/08/20266th16/116%55%+0.39