Sarafina Mshairi
4yo Filly · 9-7 · OR 60
Southwell · Follow AtTheRaces On X Handicap · 6f 16y
#6
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Held its own mid-division in 4 of 5 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 4.1)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | Lingfield | 6 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-06 | Southwell | 5 | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-06-18 | Southwell | 5 | 8th | 7th | +1 |
| 2026-05-18 | Windsor | 5 | 9th | 8th | +1 |
| 2025-10-07 | Southwell | 5 | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2025-09-12 | Chester | 5 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +5.5% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 8th of 13. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/07/2025 | 5th | 13/2 | 66% | 43% | -0.23 |
| 26/07/2025 | 2nd | 15/8 | 90% | 86% | -0.04 |
| 15/08/2025 | 3rd | 5/2 | 87% | 80% | -0.07 |
| 12/09/2025 | 5th | 7/2 | 82% | 56% | -0.26 |
| 07/10/2025 | 1st | 7/1 | 63% | 100% | +0.37 |
| 18/05/2026 | 9th | 11/1 | 42% | 11% | -0.31 |
| 18/06/2026 | 8th | 7/1 | 63% | 0% | -0.63 |
| 06/08/2026 | 6th | 28/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |
| 01/09/2026 | 4th | 22/1 | 0% | 57% | +0.57 |