14
Sprinting Speed
3yo Gelding · 9-2 · OR 57
Southwell · Follow AtTheRaces On X Handicap · 6f 16y
#13
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#13
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▼1
Strength52%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 4 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.7 /10 (raw 7.1)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.2
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.8
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-01 | Doncaster | 6 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-06-26 | Doncaster | 6 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-05-18 | Wolverhampton | 5 | 8th | 7th | +1 |
| 2026-04-25 | Leicester | 5 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-04-07 | Southwell | 5 | 10th | 9th | +1 |
| 2025-08-23 | Newmarket | 4 | 8th | 6th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish13th of 130% of fieldRange 5-13 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength18%
Delivery trend -0.0% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 13th of 13.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/07/2025 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 56% | -0.21 |
| 07/08/2025 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 38% | +0.22 |
| 23/08/2025 | 8th | 66/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 07/04/2026 | 10th | 11/1 | 42% | 18% | -0.24 |
| 25/04/2026 | 5th | 28/1 | 0% | 64% | +0.64 |
| 18/05/2026 | 8th | 12/1 | 37% | 22% | -0.15 |
| 26/06/2026 | 8th | 15/2 | 61% | 13% | -0.48 |
| 01/08/2026 | 7th | 18/1 | 5% | 33% | +0.28 |