Staniel Cay
3yo Gelding · 9-10 · OR 65
Southwell · Follow AtTheRaces On X Handicap · 6f 16y
#9
Rank
Odds
7/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.9 /10 (raw 3.9)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 | Leicester | 6 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-17 | Catterick | 5 | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-05-13 | Yarmouth | 5 | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-04-18 | Nottingham | 6 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-03-30 | Kempton | 5 | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-02-25 | Lingfield | 5 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -2.8% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 9th of 13. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/08/2025 | 5th | 50/1 | 0% | 64% | +0.64 |
| 27/08/2025 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 50% | -0.24 |
| 25/02/2026 | 5th | 5/2 | 87% | 20% | -0.67 |
| 30/03/2026 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 25% | -0.57 |
| 18/04/2026 | 1st | 6/1 | 68% | 100% | +0.32 |
| 13/05/2026 | 3rd | 11/10 | 94% | 50% | -0.44 |
| 17/08/2026 | 4th | 10/3 | 82% | 70% | -0.12 |
| 08/09/2026 | 5th | 15/2 | 61% | 60% | -0.01 |