Willolarupi
5yo Gelding · 9-11 · OR 64
Southwell · Follow AtTheRaces On X Handicap · 6f 16y
#2
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
8%
Place Prob
16%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Held its own mid-division in 5 of 6 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 4.2)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-17 | Catterick | 5 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-07-17 | Pontefract | 5 | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2025-10-06 | Pontefract | 5 | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2025-08-25 | Southwell | 5 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2025-08-06 | Pontefract | 5 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2025-07-16 | Catterick | 4 | 6th | 4th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +6.8% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 13. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/05/2025 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 09/06/2025 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 88% | +0.11 |
| 27/06/2025 | 6th | 6/1 | 68% | 29% | -0.40 |
| 16/07/2025 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 44% | +0.08 |
| 06/08/2025 | 5th | 5/1 | 74% | 50% | -0.24 |
| 25/08/2025 | 5th | 7/2 | 82% | 69% | -0.12 |
| 06/10/2025 | 3rd | 20/1 | 0% | 83% | +0.83 |
| 17/07/2026 | 4th | 22/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |
| 17/08/2026 | 5th | 18/1 | 5% | 50% | +0.45 |