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12

Woolridge

4yo Gelding · 9-4 · OR 57

Southwell · Follow AtTheRaces On X Handicap · 6f 16y

#11

Rank

Odds

20/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#11

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Maiden who took a step back in the right direction when fourth of 9 in 6f handicap at Yarmouth (good) 18 days ago. Possibilities if building on that run from a 2 lb lower mark.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength43%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 1 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.6 /10 (raw 4.9)

Highest class: 5
Recent avg: C5.5
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Dundalk 19/11/2025 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 68 · 6f Std 134 · below its mark19/11/2025 · OR 68 par19/11C8OR 68C8 @ Dundalk 10/12/2025 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 66 · 5f Std 134 · below its mark10/12/2025 · OR 66 parBHA65 @ Dundalk 09/01/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 65 · 5f Std 125 · beat its mark09/01/2026 · OR 65 par9/0165OR 656 @ Wolverhampton 02/03/2026 · Pos 8th of 9 · OR 65 · 5f21y Std 135 · below its mark02/03/2026 · OR 65 par5 @ Southwell 10/03/2026 · Pos 8th of 12 · OR 65 · 4f214y Std 130 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark10/03/2026 · OR 65 par10/035OR 655 @ Newcastle 01/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 12 · OR 63 · 6f Std 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark01/05/2026 · OR 63 par5 @ Doncaster 20/06/2026 · Pos 9th of 9 · OR 62 · 6f2y GF 130 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark20/06/2026 · OR 62 par20/065OR 626 @ Lingfield 18/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 60 · 6f1y Std 135 · beat its mark18/08/2026 · OR 60 par6 @ Yarmouth 30/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 59 · 6f3y GS 133 · beat its mark30/08/2026 · OR 59 par30/086OR 59projClass-projected finish: 8th of 13
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-30Yarmouth64th4th0
2026-08-18Lingfield65th5th0
2026-06-20Doncaster59th8th+1
2026-05-01Newcastle53rd2nd+1
2026-03-10Southwell58th7th+1
2026-03-02Wolverhampton68th8th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today19/112/0320/0630/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1350% of fieldRange 1-11 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength64%

Delivery trend +9.3% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 7th of 13. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
19/11/20254th5/287%40%-0.47
10/12/20252nd3/184%86%+0.02
09/01/20262nd10/147%88%+0.40
02/03/20268th17/255%13%-0.43
10/03/20268th33/10%36%+0.36
01/05/20263rd50/10%82%+0.82
20/06/20269th25/10%0%0.00
18/08/20265th16/116%43%+0.27
30/08/20264th25/10%63%+0.63