Zarinca
3yo Filly · 9-7 · OR 62
Southwell · Follow AtTheRaces On X Handicap · 6f 16y
#4
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
3%
Place Prob
10%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Held its own mid-division in 5 of 6 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 4.8)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 | Newcastle | 4 | 6th | 4th | +2 |
| 2026-08-06 | Southwell | 5 | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2026-07-17 | Wolverhampton | 5 | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-07-04 | Nottingham | 5 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-06-02 | Pontefract | 5 | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-04-25 | Southwell | 5 | 1st | 0th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -5.9% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 13. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/09/2025 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 91% | +0.54 |
| 07/10/2025 | 7th | 5/2 | 87% | 50% | -0.37 |
| 25/04/2026 | 1st | 6/1 | 68% | 100% | +0.32 |
| 02/06/2026 | 6th | 6/1 | 68% | 29% | -0.40 |
| 04/07/2026 | 5th | 11/2 | 71% | 33% | -0.38 |
| 17/07/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 70% | +0.33 |
| 06/08/2026 | 7th | 8/1 | 58% | 40% | -0.18 |
| 05/09/2026 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 17% | -0.31 |