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2

Charging Thunder

8yo Gelding · 9-13 · OR 84

Southwell · attheraces.com/marketmovers Handicap (GBBPlus Race) · 2m 102y

#2

Rank

Odds

10/1

Win Prob

1%

Place Prob

9%

Rank

#2

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Multiple Flat/hurdles winner upon joining present yard and proved well suited by the increased emphasis on stamina when bolting up in 6-runner handicap hurdle at Stratford (2¾m) in July. Struggled in a good-quality handicap back on the level at Goodwood but this is much less competitive.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▼1
Strength62%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price.

Held its own mid-division in 3 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.1 /10 (raw 5.0)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C2.8
Today: 4
Class gap: +1.2
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack3 @ Kempton 02/03/2026 · Pos 7th of 9 · OR 95 · 1m3f219y Sta 138 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark02/03/2026 · OR 95 par2/033OR 953 @ Wolverhampton 13/03/2026 · Pos 5th of 5 · OR 95 · 1m5f219y Std 138 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark13/03/2026 · OR 95 par2 @ Newcastle 03/04/2026 · Pos 12th of 12 · OR 93 · 2m56y Std 129 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark03/04/2026 · OR 93 par3/042OR 933 @ Beverley 15/04/2026 · Pos 2nd of 5 · OR 90 · 2m32y Goo 140 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark15/04/2026 · OR 90 par2 @ Newmarket 03/05/2026 · Pos 7th of 12 · OR 90 · 1m6f GF 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark03/05/2026 · OR 90 par3/052OR 904 @ Worcester 28/05/2026 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 109 · 2m Gd 167 · below its mark28/05/2026 · OR 109 par2 @ Newcastle 27/06/2026 · Pos 11th of 20 · OR 88 · 2m56y Sta 138 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark27/06/2026 · OR 88 par27/062OR 884 @ Stratford 19/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 108 · 2m6f7y GF 159 · beat its mark19/07/2026 · OR 108 par2 @ Goodwood 31/07/2026 · Pos 14th of 15 · OR 86 · 2m4f137y Goo 121 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark31/07/2026 · OR 86 par31/072OR 86projClass-projected finish: 4th of 4
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-31Goodwood214th12th+2
2026-07-19Stratford41st1st0
2026-06-27Newcastle211th9th+2
2026-05-28Worcester44th4th0
2026-05-03Newmarket27th5th+2
2026-04-15Beverley32nd1st+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today2/0315/0427/0631/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 40% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▲
Strength62%

Delivery trend +2.9% per run

What the projection says

Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 4th of 4. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
02/03/20267th50/10%25%+0.25
13/03/20265th7/163%0%-0.63
03/04/202612th40/10%0%0.00
15/04/20262nd4/179%75%-0.04
03/05/20267th40/10%45%+0.45
28/05/20264th5/493%40%-0.53
27/06/202611th18/15%47%+0.42
19/07/20261st6/594%100%+0.06
31/07/202614th40/10%7%+0.07