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1

Dojin

4yo Filly · 10-1 · OR 86

Southwell · attheraces.com/marketmovers Handicap (GBBPlus Race) · 2m 102y

#4

Rank

Odds

3/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#4

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Made it 3 wins from 5 starts this year fitted with a hood in 5-runner handicap at Newmarket (1¾m, good) 33 days ago, value for extra having encountered trouble late in the day. Likely to stay 2m and a 3 lb higher mark shouldn't prevent her from remaining competitive.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength54%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 3 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 1.3 /10 (raw 1.9)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.5
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Chelmsford City 19/12/2024 · Pos 3rd of 13 · OR - · 1m Std 12519/1245 @ Southwell 14/03/2025 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR - · 1m3f23y Std 1284 @ Southwell 02/04/2025 · Pos 3rd of 5 · OR 74 · 1m3f23y Std 131 · beat its mark02/04/2025 · OR 74 par2/044OR 744 @ Kempton 08/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 74 · 1m2f219y Sta 125 · beat its mark08/04/2026 · OR 74 par3 @ Kempton 04/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 78 · 1m3f219y Sta 133 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark04/05/2026 · OR 78 par4/053OR 784 @ Newmarket 20/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 5 · OR 83 · 1m6f Goo 135 · beat its mark20/06/2026 · OR 83 par3 @ Ascot 10/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 83 · 1m3f211y GF 126 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark10/07/2026 · OR 83 par10/073OR 833 @ Newmarket 15/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 83 · 1m6f GF 138 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark15/08/2026 · OR 83 par15/083OR 83projClass-projected finish: 1st of 4
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-15Newmarket31st0th+1
2026-07-10Ascot33rd2nd+1
2026-06-20Newmarket42nd2nd0
2026-05-04Kempton31st0th+1
2026-04-08Kempton41st1st0
2025-04-02Southwell43rd3rd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today19/128/0410/0715/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 433% of fieldRange 1-2 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength100%

Delivery trend -0.7% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 4.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
19/12/20243rd50/10%83%+0.83
14/03/20251st10/147%100%+0.53
02/04/20253rd2/189%50%-0.39
08/04/20261st14/126%100%+0.74
04/05/20261st10/382%100%+0.18
20/06/20262nd11/271%75%+0.04
10/07/20263rd18/15%67%+0.61
15/08/20261st11/142%100%+0.58