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4

Level Look

3yo Gelding · 9-4 · OR 78

Southwell · attheraces.com/marketmovers Handicap (GBBPlus Race) · 2m 102y

#3

Rank

Odds

4/6

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

5%

Rank

#3

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Resumed progress/winning ways in 4-runner handicap at Wolverhampton (1¾m) 10 days ago, benefiting from the increase in trip. That admittedly wasn't the deepest of races, but neither is this and he's of obvious interest under a 6-lb penalty with the step up to 2m promising to suit.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength56%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.8 /10 (raw 4.0)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.8
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Kempton 01/12/2025 · Pos 10th of 10 · OR - · 1m Sta 1331/1255 @ Lingfield 22/12/2025 · Pos 4th of 12 · OR - · 1m1y Std 13322/1253 @ Newcastle 09/01/2026 · Pos 1st of 4 · OR - · 1m2f42y Std 133 · HIGHER CLASS9/0134 @ Newmarket 17/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 4 · OR 80 · 1m4f GF 133 · below its mark17/07/2026 · OR 80 par17/074OR 804 @ Chester 02/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 78 · 1m4f63y Gd 127 · beat its mark02/08/2026 · OR 78 par2/084OR 783 @ Ascot 08/08/2026 · Pos 6th of 10 · OR 78 · 1m3f211y GF 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark08/08/2026 · OR 78 par8/083OR 784 @ Wolverhampton 07/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 4 · OR 78 · 1m6f Std 130 · beat its mark07/09/2026 · OR 78 par7/094OR 78projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 4
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-07Wolverhampton41st1st0
2026-08-08Ascot36th5th+1
2026-08-02Chester42nd2nd0
2026-07-17Newmarket44th4th0
2026-01-09Newcastle31st0th+1
2025-12-22Lingfield54th5th−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today1/1217/077/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 467% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength92%

Delivery trend -3.0% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 4. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
01/12/202510th80/10%0%0.00
22/12/20254th200/10%73%+0.73
09/01/20261st5/174%100%+0.26
17/07/20264th11/486%0%-0.86
02/08/20262nd7/491%83%-0.07
08/08/20266th18/15%44%+0.39
07/09/20261st11/1094%100%+0.06