1
Bullrider
2yo Gelding · 9-7 · OR 75
Southwell · Sky Sports Racing Sky 415 EBF Restricted Novice Stakes (GBB Race) (Div 1) · 7f 14y
#1
Rank
Odds
2/1
Win Prob
99%
Place Prob
88%
Rank
#1
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength39%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.5 /10 (raw 3.3)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.3
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.7
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-06 | Southwell | 4 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-27 | Southwell | 2 | 3rd | 1st | +2 |
| 2026-07-01 | Epsom Downs | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1170% of fieldRange 5-11 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength30%
Delivery trend -23.0% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 11. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/07/2026 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 86% | +0.03 |
| 27/07/2026 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 82% | -0.02 |
| 06/08/2026 | 5th | 11/4 | 86% | 43% | -0.43 |