4
Peaberry
2yo Colt · 9-7 · OR 76
Southwell · Sky Sports Racing Sky 415 EBF Restricted Novice Stakes (GBB Race) (Div 2) · 7f 14y
#1
Rank
Odds
11/4
Win Prob
75%
Place Prob
61%
Rank
#1
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength48%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.2 /10 (raw 3.0)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.3
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.7
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | Kempton | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-18 | Wolverhampton | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-27 | Southwell | 2 | 5th | 3rd | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 9100% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength88%
Delivery trend -16.6% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/07/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 64% | +0.64 |
| 18/08/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 91% | +0.12 |
| 04/09/2026 | 2nd | 15/2 | 61% | 91% | +0.30 |