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Cool Molly

3yo Filly · 9-7 · OR 78

Southwell · Free Bets On attheraces.com Selling Handicap · 1m 13y

#1

Rank

Odds

5/1

Win Prob

94%

Place Prob

72%

Rank

#1

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Registered her fourth all-weather success here (7f) in April. Back to that level when second at Newbury 3 weeks ago so she must be respected returning to this surface.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼1
Strength58%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 3 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 3.9)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C2.8
Today: 4
Class gap: +1.2
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Newcastle 21/03/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 69 · 6f Std 135 · beat its mark21/03/2026 · OR 69 par21/035OR 694 @ Lingfield 03/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR 72 · 7f1y Std 121 · beat its mark03/04/2026 · OR 72 par5 @ Southwell 15/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 75 · 7f14y Std 130 · beat its mark15/04/2026 · OR 75 par15/045OR 752 @ Chester 07/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 12 · OR 81 · 7f127y Gd 119 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark07/05/2026 · OR 81 par2 @ Goodwood 23/05/2026 · Pos 15th of 17 · OR 81 · 7f Gd 114 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark23/05/2026 · OR 81 par23/052OR 812 @ York 12/06/2026 · Pos 6th of 12 · OR 81 · 6f Gd 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark12/06/2026 · OR 81 par3 @ Chester 27/06/2026 · Pos 8th of 8 · OR 80 · 7f1y Goo 125 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark27/06/2026 · OR 80 par27/063OR 804 @ Chester 25/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 78 · 7f127y Goo 133 · beat its mark25/07/2026 · OR 78 par4 @ Newbury 26/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 78 · 7f GF 133 · beat its mark26/08/2026 · OR 78 par26/084OR 78projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 5
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-26Newbury42nd2nd0
2026-07-25Chester43rd3rd0
2026-06-27Chester38th7th+1
2026-06-12York26th4th+2
2026-05-23Goodwood215th13th+2
2026-05-07Chester23rd1st+2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today21/037/0527/0626/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 550% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength60%

Delivery trend -4.2% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 5. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
21/03/20262nd10/382%86%+0.03
03/04/20261st8/158%100%+0.42
15/04/20261st13/891%100%+0.09
07/05/20263rd12/137%82%+0.45
23/05/202615th16/116%13%-0.03
12/06/20266th12/137%55%+0.18
27/06/20268th17/255%0%-0.55
25/07/20263rd3/184%71%-0.13
26/08/20262nd15/261%80%+0.19