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4

Indefensible

3yo Gelding · 9-1 · OR 72

Southwell · Free Bets On attheraces.com Selling Handicap · 1m 13y

#3

Rank

Odds

4/1

Win Prob

1%

Place Prob

5%

Rank

#3

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Made it 2 wins from his last 3 starts here (7f) 2 weeks ago, staying on strongly to mow down the top pair in the market. Remains unexposed on all-weather.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength22%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 3.4)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.5
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Beverley 15/04/2026 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 71 · 7f96y Goo 131 · beat its mark15/04/2026 · OR 71 par15/045OR 715 @ Doncaster 02/05/2026 · Pos 7th of 9 · OR 72 · 7f213y Goo 132 · below its mark02/05/2026 · OR 72 par5 @ Thirsk 05/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 72 · 7f Gd 130 · beat its mark05/06/2026 · OR 72 par5/065OR 724 @ Beverley 16/06/2026 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR 72 · 7f96y Goo 133 · beat its mark16/06/2026 · OR 72 par5 @ Catterick 08/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 72 · 7f6y GF 135 · beat its mark08/07/2026 · OR 72 par8/075OR 724 @ Ripon 18/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 4 · OR 71 · 6f Goo 133 · beat its mark18/07/2026 · OR 71 par5 @ Redcar 19/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 71 · 7f Goo 131 · beat its mark19/07/2026 · OR 71 par19/075OR 714 @ Thirsk 14/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 71 · 7f Goo 126 · beat its mark14/08/2026 · OR 71 par5 @ Southwell 03/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 71 · 7f15y Std 131 · beat its mark03/09/2026 · OR 71 par3/095OR 71projClass-projected finish: 1st of 5
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-03Southwell51st2nd−1
2026-08-14Thirsk43rd3rd0
2026-07-19Redcar51st2nd−1
2026-07-18Ripon43rd3rd0
2026-07-08Catterick53rd4th−1
2026-06-16Beverley45th5th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today15/0416/0619/073/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 575% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength100%

Delivery trend +2.0% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 5.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
15/04/20262nd12/137%89%+0.52
02/05/20267th14/126%25%-0.01
05/06/20262nd11/486%89%+0.03
16/06/20265th12/137%50%+0.13
08/07/20263rd25/10%75%+0.75
18/07/20263rd5/696%33%-0.62
19/07/20261st11/1094%100%+0.06
14/08/20263rd22/10%71%+0.71
03/09/20261st17/255%100%+0.45