Rogue Supremacy
3yo Gelding · 9-10 · OR 81
Southwell · Free Bets On attheraces.com Selling Handicap · 1m 13y
#5
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.2 /10 (raw 6.5)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-08 | Lingfield | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-14 | Wolverhampton | 4 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-06-10 | Kempton | 4 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-25 | Leicester | 3 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-04-16 | Newmarket | 2 | 7th | 5th | +2 |
| 2026-04-03 | Newcastle | 2 | 8th | 6th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -1.9% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 5.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/01/2026 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 40% | +0.14 |
| 27/02/2026 | 7th | 10/1 | 47% | 45% | -0.02 |
| 13/03/2026 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 71% | +0.24 |
| 03/04/2026 | 8th | 18/1 | 5% | 46% | +0.41 |
| 16/04/2026 | 7th | 40/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 25/05/2026 | 5th | 18/1 | 5% | 64% | +0.58 |
| 10/06/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 43% | +0.43 |
| 14/07/2026 | 9th | 9/1 | 53% | 11% | -0.42 |
| 08/08/2026 | 3rd | 13/2 | 66% | 67% | +0.01 |