5
Sandy Craic
3yo Filly · 9-0 · OR 71
Southwell · Free Bets On attheraces.com Selling Handicap · 1m 13y
#4
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#4
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength23%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 3.3)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C5.0
Today: 4
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 | Carlisle | 5 | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-08-08 | Haydock | 5 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-07-29 | Redcar | 5 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-07-04 | Beverley | 5 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-06-15 | Carlisle | 5 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-06-05 | Musselburgh | 5 | 5th | 6th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 50% of fieldRange 2-4 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength52%
Delivery trend -4.5% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 5. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/04/2026 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 83% | +0.04 |
| 11/05/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 90% | +0.06 |
| 23/05/2026 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 79% | +0.53 |
| 05/06/2026 | 5th | 7/4 | 91% | 56% | -0.35 |
| 15/06/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 04/07/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 88% | +0.02 |
| 29/07/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 83% | +0.04 |
| 08/08/2026 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 60% | -0.24 |
| 09/09/2026 | 5th | 7/2 | 82% | 56% | -0.26 |