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7

Aspull

4yo Gelding · 9-7 · OR 61

Southwell · Free Tips On attheraces.com Handicap · 1m 13y

#7

Rank

Odds

10/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#7

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

7f winner on debut for Clive Cox last summer and posted easily his most encouraging effort for current yard when third of 14 in handicap over C&D 17 days ago, having run of race. Task now is to build on that.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▼2
Strength66%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.

Held its own mid-division in 4 of 5 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 5.6)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.5
Today: 6
Class gap: +1.5
Higher-class runs: 5
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Leicester 30/07/2025 · Pos 3rd of 12 · OR - · 7f Goo 137 · HIGHER CLASS30/0744 @ Salisbury 14/08/2025 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 82 · 6f213y Goo 137 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark14/08/2025 · OR 82 par4 @ Kempton 05/09/2025 · Pos 9th of 9 · OR 82 · 1m Sta 133 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark05/09/2025 · OR 82 par5/094OR 824 @ Salisbury 23/05/2026 · Pos 10th of 11 · OR 81 · 1m Gd 136 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark23/05/2026 · OR 81 par4 @ Chepstow 03/07/2026 · Pos 6th of 6 · OR 79 · 7f16y Goo 132 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark03/07/2026 · OR 79 par3/074OR 794 @ Newmarket 07/08/2026 · Pos 10th of 10 · OR 75 · 6f GF 135 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark07/08/2026 · OR 75 par5 @ Newmarket 15/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR 70 · 7f GF 137 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark15/08/2026 · OR 70 par15/085OR 704 @ Newmarket 22/08/2026 · Pos 7th of 7 · OR 65 · 5f Gd 125 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark22/08/2026 · OR 65 par6 @ Southwell 31/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 14 · OR 61 · 1m13y Std 131 · beat its mark31/08/2026 · OR 61 par31/086OR 61projClass-projected finish: 7th of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-31Southwell63rd3rd0
2026-08-22Newmarket47th5th+2
2026-08-15Newmarket55th4th+1
2026-08-07Newmarket410th8th+2
2026-07-03Chepstow46th4th+2
2026-05-23Salisbury410th8th+2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today30/0723/0515/0831/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1273% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength91%

Delivery trend +10.2% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 12. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
30/07/20253rd8/1196%82%-0.14
14/08/20252nd10/382%88%+0.05
05/09/20259th11/271%0%-0.71
23/05/202610th15/261%10%-0.51
03/07/20266th11/142%0%-0.42
07/08/202610th150/10%0%0.00
15/08/20265th66/10%20%+0.20
22/08/20267th33/10%0%0.00
31/08/20263rd100/10%85%+0.85