9

Dolo's Star

3yo Filly · 9-7 · OR 65

Southwell · Free Tips On attheraces.com Handicap · 1m 13y

#12

Rank

Odds

20/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#12

Timeform

Commentary

Progressed with each of her 3 all-weather starts for Grant Tuer, notably second of 8 in 5f novice at this course in April. However, offered little in a couple of outings for new yard this summer.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move2
Strength81%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 5 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.2 /10 (raw 5.0)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C4.2
Today: 6
Class gap: +1.8
Higher-class runs: 5
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Newcastle 11/03/2026 · Pos 5th of 5 · OR - · 5f Std 122 · HIGHER CLASS11/0344 @ Southwell 09/04/2026 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR - · 4f214y Std 126 · HIGHER CLASS9/0443 @ Southwell 28/04/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR - · 4f214y Std 128 · HIGHER CLASS28/0435 @ Leicester 04/07/2026 · Pos 11th of 11 · OR 70 · 6f GF 136 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark04/07/2026 · OR 70 par4/075OR 705 @ Thirsk 16/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 3 · OR 68 · 7f Goo 128 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark16/07/2026 · OR 68 par16/075OR 68projClass-projected finish: 6th of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-16Thirsk53rd2nd+1
2026-07-04Leicester511th10th+1
2026-04-28Southwell32nd-2th+3
2026-04-09Southwell44th2nd+2
2026-03-11Newcastle45th3rd+2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today11/039/0428/044/0716/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish12th of 120% of fieldRange 8-12 · 68%
OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend
Strength0%

Delivery trend -18.2% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 12th of 12. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
11/03/20265th22/10%0%0.00
09/04/20264th33/10%40%+0.40
28/04/20262nd50/10%86%+0.86
04/07/202611th33/10%0%0.00
16/07/20263rd11/271%0%-0.71