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3

Dream Illusion

4yo Filly · 9-11 · OR 65

Southwell · Free Tips On attheraces.com Handicap · 1m 13y

#1

Rank

Odds

10/1

Win Prob

42%

Place Prob

44%

Rank

#1

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Dual C&D winner in 2026 and back to that sort of form when good second of 10 in handicap at Wolverhampton (7f) last month. Undone by testing conditions at Haydock since and better expected here.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼1
Strength56%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 6 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 4.5)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.0
Today: 6
Class gap: +1.0
Higher-class runs: 6
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Newcastle 27/03/2026 · Pos 8th of 9 · OR 68 · 1m5y Std 133 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark27/03/2026 · OR 68 par27/035OR 685 @ Southwell 05/04/2026 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 68 · 1m13y Std 133 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark05/04/2026 · OR 68 par5 @ Southwell 29/04/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 67 · 1m13y Std 132 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark29/04/2026 · OR 67 par29/045OR 675 @ Newmarket 15/05/2026 · Pos 12th of 13 · OR 68 · 1m Gd 142 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark15/05/2026 · OR 68 par5 @ Wetherby 04/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 68 · 7f Goo 135 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark04/06/2026 · OR 68 par4/065OR 685 @ Yarmouth 08/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 68 · 7f3y GF 140 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark08/07/2026 · OR 68 par5 @ Southwell 06/08/2026 · Pos 8th of 11 · OR 67 · 1m14y Std 139 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark06/08/2026 · OR 67 par6/085OR 675 @ Wolverhampton 17/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 66 · 7f36y Std 136 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark17/08/2026 · OR 66 par5 @ Haydock 04/09/2026 · Pos 9th of 10 · OR 66 · 6f212y Hvy 136 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark04/09/2026 · OR 66 par4/095OR 66projClass-projected finish: 8th of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-04Haydock59th8th+1
2026-08-17Wolverhampton52nd1st+1
2026-08-06Southwell58th7th+1
2026-07-08Yarmouth54th3rd+1
2026-06-04Wetherby52nd1st+1
2026-05-15Newmarket512th11th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today27/0315/056/084/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 12100% of fieldRange 1-12 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength54%

Delivery trend +4.7% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 12. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
27/03/20268th9/591%13%-0.78
05/04/20266th3/184%29%-0.56
29/04/20262nd4/179%88%+0.09
15/05/202612th11/142%8%-0.34
04/06/20262nd20/10%89%+0.89
08/07/20264th11/271%57%-0.14
06/08/20268th10/382%30%-0.52
17/08/20262nd13/266%89%+0.23
04/09/20269th9/153%11%-0.42