Ernie's Valentine
7yo Gelding · 9-9 · OR 63
Southwell · Free Tips On attheraces.com Handicap · 1m 13y
#5
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Held its own mid-division in 6 of 6 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.1 /10 (raw 5.3)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-25 | Lingfield | 5 | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-03-30 | Wolverhampton | 4 | 7th | 5th | +2 |
| 2026-03-20 | Wolverhampton | 5 | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-03-10 | Southwell | 5 | 8th | 7th | +1 |
| 2026-02-20 | Southwell | 5 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-02-02 | Wolverhampton | 5 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +1.0% per run
What the projection says
Edging in front of its market price lately. Projected 5th of 12.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/12/2025 | 4th | 13/2 | 66% | 73% | +0.07 |
| 02/01/2026 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 43% | +0.17 |
| 17/01/2026 | 2nd | 15/2 | 61% | 91% | +0.30 |
| 02/02/2026 | 5th | 11/2 | 71% | 56% | -0.15 |
| 20/02/2026 | 5th | 11/1 | 42% | 64% | +0.22 |
| 10/03/2026 | 8th | 5/1 | 74% | 36% | -0.37 |
| 20/03/2026 | 4th | 7/4 | 91% | 63% | -0.28 |
| 30/03/2026 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 45% | +0.30 |
| 25/08/2026 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 63% | +0.47 |