IvyArcIvyArc
12

Palmarian

4yo Gelding · 9-5 · OR 59

Southwell · Free Tips On attheraces.com Handicap · 1m 13y

#10

Rank

Odds

16/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#10

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Gained breakthrough success at Leicester (1m) in July and backed it up with a good second at Doncaster next time. Not been in same form since, however.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength62%

What the class read says

Favourable class profile — form adjusted for the quality of opposition looks competitive here. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 6.6)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C5.8
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Redcar 07/05/2026 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 67 · 7f Goo 132 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark07/05/2026 · OR 67 par7/055OR 675 @ Newcastle 19/05/2026 · Pos 8th of 10 · OR 65 · 7f14y Std 125 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark19/05/2026 · OR 65 par6 @ Doncaster 06/06/2026 · Pos 9th of 11 · OR 63 · 7f6y GF 134 · below its mark06/06/2026 · OR 63 par6/066OR 636 @ Redcar 19/06/2026 · Pos 5th of 14 · OR 60 · 7f Gd 130 · beat its mark19/06/2026 · OR 60 par6 @ Leicester 04/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 58 · 1m53y GF 140 · beat its mark04/07/2026 · OR 58 par4/076OR 586 @ Doncaster 18/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 11 · OR 60 · 7f213y GF 135 · beat its mark18/07/2026 · OR 60 par6 @ Doncaster 23/07/2026 · Pos 8th of 8 · OR 60 · 7f213y GF 130 · below its mark23/07/2026 · OR 60 par23/076OR 605 @ Thirsk 14/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 15 · OR 61 · 7f218y Goo 121 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark14/08/2026 · OR 61 par6 @ Hamilton 02/09/2026 · Pos 10th of 10 · OR 60 · 1m68y Sft 138 · below its mark02/09/2026 · OR 60 par2/096OR 60projClass-projected finish: 11th of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-02Hamilton610th10th0
2026-08-14Thirsk54th3rd+1
2026-07-23Doncaster68th8th0
2026-07-18Doncaster62nd2nd0
2026-07-04Leicester61st1st0
2026-06-19Redcar65th5th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today7/0519/0623/072/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 1218% of fieldRange 5-12 · 68%
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▼
Strength0%

Delivery trend -7.4% per run

What the projection says

Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 10th of 12. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
07/05/20265th40/10%43%+0.43
19/05/20268th20/10%22%+0.22
06/06/20269th22/10%20%+0.20
19/06/20265th22/10%69%+0.69
04/07/20261st13/266%100%+0.34
18/07/20262nd11/142%90%+0.48
23/07/20268th11/486%0%-0.86
14/08/20264th20/10%79%+0.79
02/09/202610th9/153%0%-0.53