El Ghuwah
3yo Gelding · 9-9 · OR 55
Southwell · Free Race Replays On attheraces.com Handicap · 4f 214y
#9
Rank
Odds
7/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 1.6 /10 (raw 4.0)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-16 | Southwell | 4 | 4th | 2nd | +2 |
| 2026-07-22 | Leicester | 4 | 3rd | 1st | +2 |
| 2026-07-04 | Nottingham | 4 | 5th | 3rd | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +6.3% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 12. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/07/2026 | 5th | 33/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 22/07/2026 | 3rd | 66/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 16/08/2026 | 4th | 150/1 | 0% | 63% | +0.63 |