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7

Havin A Flyer

3yo Filly · 9-5 · OR 51

Southwell · Free Race Replays On attheraces.com Handicap · 4f 214y

#1

Rank

Odds

6/1

Win Prob

47%

Place Prob

47%

Rank

#1

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Finally took advantage of a much-reduced mark over C&D in July before respectable third under a penalty at Wolverhampton a week later. Not in same form at Catterick since but can't be ruled out here.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength42%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.7 /10 (raw 4.3)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C6.0
Today: 6
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Newcastle 29/12/2025 · Pos 8th of 10 · OR 54 · 6f Std 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark29/12/2025 · OR 54 par29/124OR 544 @ Newcastle 20/01/2026 · Pos 8th of 10 · OR 54 · 5f Std 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark20/01/2026 · OR 54 par6 @ Catterick 30/05/2026 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 52 · 5f GF 129 · beat its mark30/05/2026 · OR 52 par30/056OR 526 @ Catterick 11/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 50 · 5f GS 125 · beat its mark11/06/2026 · OR 50 par6 @ Southwell 18/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 48 · 4f214y Std 129 · beat its mark18/06/2026 · OR 48 par18/066OR 486 @ Wolverhampton 07/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 47 · 5f21y Std 130 · beat its mark07/07/2026 · OR 47 par6 @ Southwell 23/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 46 · 4f214y Std 126 · beat its mark23/07/2026 · OR 46 par23/076OR 466 @ Wolverhampton 30/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 46 · 5f21y Std 133 · beat its mark30/07/2026 · OR 46 par6 @ Catterick 04/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 50 · 5f Goo 129 · beat its mark04/08/2026 · OR 50 par4/086OR 50projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-04Catterick64th4th0
2026-07-30Wolverhampton63rd3rd0
2026-07-23Southwell61st1st0
2026-07-07Wolverhampton62nd2nd0
2026-06-18Southwell63rd3rd0
2026-06-11Catterick63rd3rd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today29/1211/0623/074/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1291% of fieldRange 4-9 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength47%

Delivery trend -4.2% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 12. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
29/12/20258th28/10%22%+0.22
20/01/20268th66/10%22%+0.22
30/05/20264th3/184%63%-0.22
11/06/20263rd17/255%60%+0.05
18/06/20263rd10/382%78%-0.05
07/07/20262nd11/893%83%-0.09
23/07/20261st5/174%100%+0.26
30/07/20263rd5/287%71%-0.15
04/08/20264th10/382%50%-0.32