Hvar
3yo Gelding · 9-9 · OR 55
Southwell · Free Race Replays On attheraces.com Handicap · 4f 214y
#10
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#10
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 9.7 /10 (raw 8.2)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-27 | Carlisle | 6 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-07-06 | Ripon | 6 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-06-05 | Thirsk | 5 | 13th | 12th | +1 |
| 2026-05-21 | Haydock | 5 | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2026-05-04 | Beverley | 5 | 12th | 11th | +1 |
| 2026-04-16 | Ripon | 4 | 12th | 10th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +6.6% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 10th of 12. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/09/2025 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 0% | -0.79 |
| 26/09/2025 | 4th | 15/2 | 61% | 40% | -0.21 |
| 11/10/2025 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 16/04/2026 | 12th | 16/1 | 16% | 8% | -0.07 |
| 04/05/2026 | 12th | 40/1 | 0% | 15% | +0.15 |
| 21/05/2026 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |
| 05/06/2026 | 13th | 50/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 06/07/2026 | 9th | 22/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 27/08/2026 | 11th | 40/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |