Kohana Girl
5yo Mare · 9-1 · OR 46
Southwell · Free Race Replays On attheraces.com Handicap · 4f 214y
#12
Rank
Odds
25/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#12
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.1 /10 (raw 6.5)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-06-17 | Southwell | 6 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-04-29 | Nottingham | 6 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2024-12-13 | Southwell | 5 | 8th | 7th | +1 |
| 2024-10-08 | Southwell | 5 | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2024-09-05 | Lingfield | 6 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2024-07-17 | Yarmouth | 6 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +1.4% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 11th of 12.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/05/2024 | 6th | 40/1 | 0% | 44% | +0.44 |
| 30/05/2024 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 67% | +0.51 |
| 16/06/2024 | 11th | 7/1 | 63% | 9% | -0.54 |
| 17/07/2024 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 67% | +0.30 |
| 05/09/2024 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 20% | -0.27 |
| 08/10/2024 | 2nd | 40/1 | 0% | 75% | +0.75 |
| 13/12/2024 | 8th | 18/1 | 5% | 36% | +0.31 |
| 29/04/2025 | 10th | 50/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 17/06/2025 | 5th | 66/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |