Mariselle
3yo Filly · 8-13 · OR 45
Southwell · Free Race Replays On attheraces.com Handicap · 4f 214y
#8
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 6.3)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-17 | Lingfield | 6 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-14 | Wolverhampton | 5 | 9th | 8th | +1 |
| 2026-07-04 | Nottingham | 4 | 7th | 5th | +2 |
| 2026-06-18 | Lingfield | 4 | 4th | 2nd | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -18.9% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 9th of 12. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/06/2026 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 57% | +0.41 |
| 04/07/2026 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 14/07/2026 | 9th | 125/1 | 0% | 11% | +0.11 |
| 17/08/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 20% | -0.17 |