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3

One For Harvey

4yo Filly · 9-8 · OR 53

Southwell · Free Race Replays On attheraces.com Handicap · 4f 214y

#6

Rank

Odds

7/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#6

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Ready winner over 5f at Nottingham in May 2025 but not been able to add to that victory since. However, has dropped to a handy mark and stepped up on yard debut when good fourth of 11 in handicap at Windsor (6f, firm) 35 days ago. Enters calculations.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength46%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.9 /10 (raw 4.6)

Highest class: 5
Recent avg: C5.7
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Kempton 09/04/2025 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR 61 · 6f Sta 124 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark09/04/2025 · OR 61 par9/045OR 616 @ Nottingham 10/05/2025 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 60 · 5f8y Goo 135 · beat its mark10/05/2025 · OR 60 par6 @ Yarmouth 11/06/2025 · Pos 8th of 8 · OR 65 · 5f42y Gd 134 · below its mark11/06/2025 · OR 65 par11/066OR 655 @ Yarmouth 27/06/2025 · Pos 5th of 5 · OR 64 · 5f42y Goo 133 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark27/06/2025 · OR 64 par5 @ Newmarket 02/08/2025 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 63 · 5f GS 131 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark02/08/2025 · OR 63 par2/085OR 636 @ Bath 03/09/2025 · Pos 8th of 8 · OR 61 · 5f160y Sft 135 · below its mark03/09/2025 · OR 61 par6 @ Chelmsford City 09/10/2025 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR 58 · 5f Std 129 · beat its mark09/10/2025 · OR 58 par9/106OR 586 @ Yarmouth 23/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 55 · 6f3y GF 132 · beat its mark23/07/2026 · OR 55 par6 @ Windsor 13/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 11 · OR 53 · 6f12y GF 130 · beat its mark13/08/2026 · OR 53 par13/086OR 53projClass-projected finish: 6th of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-13Windsor64th4th0
2026-07-23Yarmouth65th5th0
2025-10-09Chelmsford City66th6th0
2025-09-03Bath68th8th0
2025-08-02Newmarket54th3rd+1
2025-06-27Yarmouth55th4th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today9/0427/069/1013/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1273% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +8.2% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 12. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
09/04/20255th9/153%50%-0.03
10/05/20251st6/168%100%+0.32
11/06/20258th5/287%0%-0.87
27/06/20255th10/147%0%-0.47
02/08/20254th14/126%57%+0.31
03/09/20258th10/147%0%-0.47
09/10/20256th14/126%38%+0.11
23/07/20265th40/10%33%+0.33
13/08/20264th40/10%70%+0.70