Tommie's Angel
3yo Filly · 9-1 · OR 47
Southwell · Free Race Replays On attheraces.com Handicap · 4f 214y
#11
Rank
Odds
25/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#11
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.4 /10 (raw 6.8)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-03 | Newcastle | 6 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-07-30 | Wolverhampton | 6 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-30 | Chester | 4 | 11th | 9th | +2 |
| 2026-05-22 | Pontefract | 4 | 7th | 5th | +2 |
| 2026-05-07 | Southwell | 4 | 4th | 2nd | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -5.7% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 12th of 12. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/05/2026 | 4th | 33/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |
| 22/05/2026 | 7th | 50/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 30/05/2026 | 11th | 100/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 30/07/2026 | 5th | 18/1 | 5% | 43% | +0.38 |
| 03/09/2026 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |