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4

Cougar

7yo Gelding · 11-1 · OR 56

Southwell · Download The At The Races App Novice Amateur Jockeys' Handicap · 1m 3f 23y

#5

Rank

Odds

20/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#5

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Responded well to the fitting of blinkers when winning back-to-back at Musselburgh and Hamilton this time last year but has looked a shadow of that horse this campaign, again well held at Ripon last month. Switch to new yard needs to revive his fortunes.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength75%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 6 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.4 /10 (raw 6.7)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C5.3
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.7
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Hamilton 12/07/2025 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 57 · 1m3f15y Gd 131 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark12/07/2025 · OR 57 par12/075OR 576 @ Hamilton 03/09/2025 · Pos 8th of 8 · OR 53 · 1m3f15y Goo 130 · below its mark03/09/2025 · OR 53 par6 @ Musselburgh 14/09/2025 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 51 · 1m4f104y Goo 121 · beat its mark14/09/2025 · OR 51 par14/096OR 516 @ Hamilton 21/09/2025 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 51 · 1m4f15y Sft 135 · beat its mark21/09/2025 · OR 51 par4 @ Thirsk 18/04/2026 · Pos 12th of 12 · OR 61 · 1m4f8y Goo 116 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark18/04/2026 · OR 61 par18/044OR 616 @ Musselburgh 29/04/2026 · Pos 7th of 9 · OR 61 · 1m4f104y Goo 133 · below its mark29/04/2026 · OR 61 par5 @ Musselburgh 21/05/2026 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR 60 · 1m4f104y Gd 125 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark21/05/2026 · OR 60 par21/055OR 605 @ Catterick 15/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR 59 · 1m4f13y GF 148 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark15/07/2026 · OR 59 par6 @ Ripon 31/08/2026 · Pos 7th of 10 · OR 58 · 1m2f190y Sft 152 · beat its mark31/08/2026 · OR 58 par31/086OR 58projClass-projected finish: 7th of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-31Ripon67th7th0
2026-07-15Catterick55th4th+1
2026-05-21Musselburgh55th4th+1
2026-04-29Musselburgh67th7th0
2026-04-18Thirsk412th10th+2
2025-09-21Hamilton61st1st0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today12/0721/0921/0531/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 913% of fieldRange 4-9 · 68%
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▲
Strength16%

Delivery trend +4.1% per run

What the projection says

Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 8th of 9. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
12/07/20256th14/126%29%+0.02
03/09/20258th6/168%0%-0.68
14/09/20251st5/174%100%+0.26
21/09/20251st7/491%100%+0.09
18/04/202612th33/10%0%0.00
29/04/20267th11/271%25%-0.46
21/05/20265th12/137%20%-0.17
15/07/20265th80/10%20%+0.20
31/08/20267th150/10%33%+0.33