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5

Spec Of Light

4yo Gelding · 10-13 · OR 54

Southwell · Download The At The Races App Novice Amateur Jockeys' Handicap · 1m 3f 23y

#4

Rank

Odds

20/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#4

★ Timeform

Commentary

Runner-up over C&D in February but has failed to repeat that form since and is hard to fancy despite a tumbling handicap mark.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength40%

What the class read says

Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.5 /10 (raw 6.0)

Highest class: 5
Recent avg: C5.8
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack6 @ Southwell 28/12/2025 · Pos 5th of 12 · OR 65 · 1m3f23y Std 137 · beat its mark28/12/2025 · OR 65 par28/126OR 656 @ Southwell 17/01/2026 · Pos 9th of 9 · OR 65 · 1m4f14y Std 137 · below its mark17/01/2026 · OR 65 par6 @ Wolverhampton 02/02/2026 · Pos 7th of 9 · OR 62 · 1m1f104y Std 132 · below its mark02/02/2026 · OR 62 par2/026OR 626 @ Southwell 28/02/2026 · Pos 2nd of 12 · OR 60 · 1m3f23y Std 130 · beat its mark28/02/2026 · OR 60 par5 @ Southwell 02/04/2026 · Pos 7th of 9 · OR 62 · 1m3f23y Std 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark02/04/2026 · OR 62 par2/045OR 626 @ Southwell 28/04/2026 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR 61 · 1m4f14y Std 133 · beat its mark28/04/2026 · OR 61 par6 @ Wolverhampton 11/05/2026 · Pos 8th of 9 · OR 60 · 1m5f219y Std 130 · below its mark11/05/2026 · OR 60 par11/056OR 606 @ Nottingham 02/07/2026 · Pos 8th of 9 · OR 58 · 1m2f50y Goo 140 · below its mark02/07/2026 · OR 58 par6 @ Leicester 14/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 56 · 1m3f179y GF 126 · beat its mark14/07/2026 · OR 56 par14/076OR 56projClass-projected finish: 8th of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-14Leicester64th4th0
2026-07-02Nottingham68th8th0
2026-05-11Wolverhampton68th8th0
2026-04-28Southwell65th5th0
2026-04-02Southwell57th6th+1
2026-02-28Southwell62nd2nd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today28/1228/0211/0514/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 963% of fieldRange 4-9 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength18%

Delivery trend +0.8% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 9.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
28/12/20255th17/255%64%+0.08
17/01/20269th16/116%0%-0.16
02/02/20267th14/126%25%-0.01
28/02/20262nd18/15%91%+0.86
02/04/20267th11/142%25%-0.17
28/04/20265th16/116%56%+0.40
11/05/20268th25/10%13%+0.13
02/07/20268th28/10%13%+0.13
14/07/20264th12/137%40%+0.03