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9

The Pug

6yo Gelding · 10-5 · OR 46

Southwell · Download The At The Races App Novice Amateur Jockeys' Handicap · 1m 3f 23y

#1

Rank

Odds

4/1

Win Prob

96%

Place Prob

77%

Rank

#1

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Not the most reliable but has run creditably the last twice, latest when second of 7 in handicap over similar trip at Bath 5 days ago. Blinkers back on. Claims if in same form again.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength29%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 5.1)

Highest class: 5
Recent avg: C6.0
Today: 6
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack6 @ Wolverhampton 31/03/2026 · Pos 9th of 10 · OR 45 · 1m1f104y Std 121 · beat its mark31/03/2026 · OR 45 par31/036OR 456 @ Catterick 11/05/2026 · Pos 12th of 14 · OR 45 · 1m4f13y Gd 126 · beat its mark11/05/2026 · OR 45 par6 @ Chepstow 15/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 45 · 1m2f Goo 142 · beat its mark15/06/2026 · OR 45 par15/066OR 456 @ Wolverhampton 21/07/2026 · Pos 6th of 11 · OR 46 · 1m5f219y Std 142 · beat its mark21/07/2026 · OR 46 par6 @ Beverley 28/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 46 · 1m1f207y Goo 139 · beat its mark28/07/2026 · OR 46 par28/076OR 466 @ Pontefract 05/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 45 · 1m2f5y Goo 141 · beat its mark05/08/2026 · OR 45 par6 @ Brighton 23/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR 45 · 1m3f198y Goo 143 · beat its mark23/08/2026 · OR 45 par23/086OR 456 @ Lingfield 01/09/2026 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR 45 · 1m2f Std 137 · beat its mark01/09/2026 · OR 45 par6 @ Bath 12/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 46 · 1m3f137y Goo 137 · beat its mark12/09/2026 · OR 46 par12/096OR 46projClass-projected finish: 5th of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-12Bath62nd2nd0
2026-09-01Lingfield65th5th0
2026-08-23Brighton65th5th0
2026-08-05Pontefract64th4th0
2026-07-28Beverley65th5th0
2026-07-21Wolverhampton66th6th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today31/0321/0723/0812/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 9100% of fieldRange 1-1 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +3.3% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 9. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
31/03/20269th22/10%11%+0.11
11/05/202612th50/10%15%+0.15
15/06/20263rd10/147%75%+0.28
21/07/20266th11/142%50%+0.08
28/07/20265th14/126%43%+0.17
05/08/20264th10/147%50%+0.03
23/08/20265th28/10%20%+0.20
01/09/20265th66/10%56%+0.56
12/09/20262nd10/147%83%+0.36