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8

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9yo Gelding · 10-9 · OR 50

Southwell · Download The At The Races App Novice Amateur Jockeys' Handicap · 1m 3f 23y

#8

Rank

Odds

5/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#8

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Gained a first success since 2023 in 6-runner handicap at Brighton (1½m) last month. Undone by slow start at Lingfield since and can't be ruled out here. Hood back on.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength51%

What the class read says

Favourable class profile — form adjusted for the quality of opposition looks competitive here. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 1 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.6 /10 (raw 6.4)

Highest class: BHA47
Recent avg: C5.8
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Southwell 21/05/2026 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 45 · 1m3f23y Std 137 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark21/05/2026 · OR 45 par21/055OR 455 @ Brighton 21/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 50 · 7f216y Goo 137 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark21/06/2026 · OR 50 par5 @ Pontefract 29/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 50 · 1m2f5y Goo 138 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark29/06/2026 · OR 50 par29/065OR 506 @ Carlisle 04/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR 50 · 7f173y Goo 144 · beat its mark04/07/2026 · OR 50 par5 @ Windsor 03/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 48 · 1m3f99y GF 137 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark03/08/2026 · OR 48 par3/085OR 486 @ Lingfield 11/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 11 · OR 48 · 1m4f Std 135 · beat its mark11/08/2026 · OR 48 par6 @ Lingfield 15/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 48 · 1m2f Std 124 · beat its mark15/08/2026 · OR 48 par15/086OR 486 @ Brighton 23/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 48 · 1m3f198y Goo 146 · beat its mark23/08/2026 · OR 48 par6 @ Lingfield 01/09/2026 · Pos 8th of 10 · OR 48 · 1m2f Std 143 · beat its mark01/09/2026 · OR 48 par1/096OR 48projClass-projected finish: 4th of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-01Lingfield68th8th0
2026-08-23Brighton61st1st0
2026-08-15Lingfield63rd3rd0
2026-08-11Lingfield64th4th0
2026-08-03Windsor52nd1st+1
2026-07-04Carlisle65th5th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today21/054/0715/081/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 950% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▲ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price
Trend▼
Strength69%

Delivery trend -4.3% per run

What the projection says

Edging in front of its market price lately. Projected 5th of 9. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
21/05/20265th12/137%43%+0.06
21/06/20263rd25/10%60%+0.60
29/06/20264th18/15%57%+0.52
04/07/20265th17/255%50%-0.05
03/08/20262nd17/255%86%+0.30
11/08/20264th3/184%70%-0.14
15/08/20263rd13/266%71%+0.06
23/08/20261st4/179%100%+0.21
01/09/20268th14/126%22%-0.04